Hazard and safety risk modeling

Abstract

This chapter presents aspects of risk modeling with a focus on UAS. It provides an overview of the current level of safety of manned aviation in terms of accident statistics. These are then mapped as target levels for UAS under the “Equivalent Level of Safety” principle to provide a glimpse at what that may entail for UAS regulations. Different methodologies are presented for estimating the risk of ground impact and midair collision accidents and how these estimates can be translated to system requirements. The chapter also provides guidelines on the use of different risk models and then applies a selection of them to five different UAS in two distinct scenarios, to compare the results of different choices.