Interactive Effects of meteorological Factors and Ambient air Pollutants on Mumps Incidences in Ningxia, China Between 2015 and 2019

Abstract

Background: Existing evidence suggests that mumps epidemics, a global public health issue, are associated with meteorological factors and air pollutants at the population scale. However, the interaction effect of meteorological factors and air pollutants on mumps remains underexplored. Methods: Daily cases of mumps, meteorological factors, and air pollutants were collected in Ningxia, China, from 2015 to 2019. First, a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) was employed to assess the confounding-adjusted relationship between meteorological factors, ambient air pollutants, and mumps incidences. According to the results of DLNM, stratification in both air pollutants and meteorological factors was adopted to further explore the interaction effect of particulate matter less than or equal to 2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM2.5) and ground-level ozone (O3) with temperature and relative humidity (RH). Results: We reported significant individual associations between mumps incidences and environmental factors, including temperature, relative humidity, PM2.5, and O3. Evident multiplicate and additive interactions between meteorological factors and PM2.5 were found with interaction relative risk (IRR) of 1.14 (95%CI: 1.01, 1.29) and relative excess risk due to interaction (RERI) of 0.17 (95%CI: 0.02, 0.32) for a moderate level of temperature at 12°C, and IRR of 1.37 (95%CI: 1.14, 1.66), RERI of 0.36 (95%CI: 0.11, 0.60) for a high level of temperature at 20°C, respectively. These results indicated that PM2.5 and temperature have a significant synergistic effect on the cases of mumps, while no interaction between relative humidity and PM2.5 is observed. Regarding O3 and meteorological factors (temperature = 12°C, 20°C), IRR and RERI were 1.33 (95%CI: 1.17, 1.52) and 0.30 (95%CI: 0.16, 0.45), 1.91 (95%CI: 1.46, 2.49) and 0.69 (95%CI: 0.32, 1.07), respectively. And IRR of 1.17 (95%CI: 1.06, 1.29), RERI of 0.13 (95%CI: 0.04, 0.21) for a middle level of relative humidity at 48%. Conclusion: Our findings indicated that meteorological factors and air pollutants imposed a significantly lagged and nonlinear effect on the incidence of mumps. The interaction between low temperature and O3 showed antagonistic effects, while temperature (medium and high) with PM2.5 and O3 presented synergistic effects. For relative humidity, the interaction with O3 is synergistic. These results provide scientific evidence to relevant health authorities for the precise disease control and prevention of mumps in arid and semi-arid areas.