The effect of COVID-19 on food sales

Abstract

Both COVID-19 pandemic-related restrictions and recessionary employment loss severely impacted US food sales during 2020. This article estimates the historical relationship between food expenditures and employment at the county level. Using these estimates, we simulate the impact of the loss of employment on food sales and find that, on average, employment loss increased food-at-home (FAH) sales by 1.3% and decreased food-away-from-home (FAFH) sales by 0.5% in 2020. We argue differences to the actual 4.8% increase in FAH sales and 19.5% decrease in FAFH sales in 2020 likely stem from the more drastic COVID-19 pandemic-related restrictions and behavioral changes.