Modelling spatial distribution of outdoor recreation trips of urban residents: An in-depth study in Salford, UK

Abstract

Outdoor recreation is one of the most important leisure activities of urban residents, with urban greenspace accruing the highest value of benefits among all greenspaces in the UK. However, access and trip-making to outdoor greenspaces by urban residents remain poorly understood. Existing trip-making prediction models that have been established for assessing the recreation benefits of outdoor greenspaces have dealt separately with visits to urban and rural greenspaces. This makes it difficult to assess greenspace strategies when considering them as a whole infrastructure. Meanwhile there is a risk of misjudging the value (e.g. double counting) when they are summed mechanically. This research aims to investigate the strengths and weaknesses of predictive models of outdoor recreation travel. An output of the research is a new model with two components: (a) predominantly local trips and (b) predominantly non-local trips. The resultant model is able to make an assessment that seamlessly combines urban and rural greenspaces. It also links the spatial distribution of visits to key spatial factors, such as distribution of population, location of recreational sites, transport accessibility and travel time. The resulting quantification of the impacts of policy interventions provide a robust basis for decision making.