Propagation of Meteorological Drought to Agricultural and Hydrological Droughts in the Tropical Lancang–Mekong River Basin

Abstract

In the past several decades, drought events have occurred frequently around the world. However, research on the propagation of drought events has not been adequately explored. This study investigated the drought propagation process from meteorological drought to agricultural drought (PMAD) and from meteorological drought to hydrological drought (PMHD) using a 72-year reanalysis dataset in the tropical Lancang–Mekong River Basin. Firstly, we used a new method—Standardized Drought Analysis Toolbox—to construct drought indices. Then, a linear method (Pearson correlation analysis) and a nonlinear method (mutual information) were used to investigate the drought propagation process. Cross-wavelet analysis and wavelet coherence analysis were employed to explore the statistical relationship among the three drought types. Finally, the random forest method was applied to quantify the major factors in drought response time (DRT). The results revealed the following: (1) both linear and nonlinear methods exhibited strong temporal and spatial consistency for both PMAD and PMHD, with linear relationships being stronger than nonlinear ones. (2) The DRTs of PMAD and PMHD were around 1–2 months and 3–5 months, respectively. Significant differences existed in the DRT between the dry season and the rainy season. (3) A divergent spatial pattern of the proportion of DRT was observed between PMAD and PMHD. (4) Significant statistical correlations between meteorological drought and agricultural drought and between meteorological drought and hydrological drought were observed in specific periods for each sub-region; (5) Hydrometeorological factors contributed the most to DRT, followed by terrain factors and the land cover types. The findings of this study deepened our understanding of the spatial–temporal relationship of multiple drought propagation types in this transboundary river basin.