A New Non-Parametric Statistical Approach to Assess Risks Associated with Climate Change in Construction Projects Based on LOOCV Technique

Abstract

During the last two decades, Iran government has implemented a major program to extend and upgrade construction projects in oil and gas industry. In conjunction with the increasing growth, there are many types of potential risks that affect the construction projects. Risks can be defined as an uncertain event or condition that has a positive or negative effect on project objectives, such as time, cost, scope, and quality (Caltrans, 2007; PMI, 2008). Thus, there is a need for a risk management process to manage all types of risks in projects. Risk management includes the processes of conducting risk management planning, identification, analysis, response planning, monitoring, and control on a construction project. Risk management encourages the project team to take appropriate measures to: (1) minimize adverse impacts to the project scope, cost, and schedule (and quality, as a result); (2) maximize opportunities to improve the project’s objectives with lower cost, shorter schedules, enhanced scope and higher quality; and (3) minimize management by crisis (Caltrans, 2007). In project risk management, one of the major steps is to assess the potential risks (Ebrahimnejad et al., 2009, 2010; Makui et al., 2010; Mojtahedi et al., 2010). The risk assessment process can be complex because of the complexity of the modeling requirement and the often subjective nature of the data available to conduct the analysis in construction projects. However, the complexity of the process is not overwhelming and the benefits of the outcome can be extremely valuable (Mousavi et al., 2011). Many decisions come with a long-term commitment and can be very climate sensitive. Examples of such decisions include urbanization plans, risk management strategies, infrastructure development for water resource management or transportation, and building design and norms. These decisions have consequences over periods of 50–200 years. Urbanization plans influence city structures over even longer timescales. These kinds of decisions and investments are also vulnerable to changes in climate conditions and sea level