The influence of diurnal temperature range on the incidence of respiratory syncytial virus in Japan

Abstract

The incidence of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) has been reported to exhibit seasonal variation. However, the impact of diurnal temperature range (DTR) on RSV has not been investigated. After acquiring data related to cases of RSV and weather parameters of DTR in Fukuoka, Japan, between 2006 and 2012, we used negative binomial generalized linear models and distributed lag nonlinear models to assess the possible relationship between DTR and RSV cases, adjusting for confounding factors. Our analysis revealed that the weekly number of RSV cases increased with a relative risk of 3·30 (95% confidence interval 1·65-6·60) for every 1°C increase in DTR. Our study provides quantitative evidence that the number of RSV cases increased significantly with increasing DTR. We suggest that preventive measures for limiting the spread of RSV should be considered during extended periods of high DTR.