Impact of the climate change and the land use/land cover change in the hydrological and water erosion response in the Quiscab river subbasin

Abstract

The following study determines the impact of climate change and the land use/land cover change in the hydrological and water erosion response in the Quiscab sub basin, its approximate area is 149.7 km2. The SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model is used. It is considered a base line (1994-2015); a Climate change scenario RCP 8.5, HadGEM2-ES model up to 2050; and two hypothetical scenarios of the land use/land cover change (-80% forest, and +50% forest). With the SWAT-CUP program, calibration is done in two sites. The site with the least intervention shows a food hydrological performance (NS = 0.77; KGE = 0.87). The site of the most intervention shows a none-satisfactory hydrological performance (NS = -5; KGE = -0.8). Based on the evaluated scenarios, it is predicted that the highest impact in the hydrological and water erosion response will be caused by climate change. The production of water and water erosion is predicted to be reduced up to 40% and 20%, respectively. Even though the observed data is limited, temporarily and spatially, it was possible to simulate the hydrological cycle and estimate the water erosion; highlighting the importance of the spatially instrumentation and temporary of the national basins.