Characterization of Scientific Prediction and its Kinds in Economics

Abstract

When Chapter 2 offers the characterization of scientific prediction and its kinds in economics, there is an initial issue: the relation between scientific explanation and scientific prediction. This relation leads to the problem of symmetry or asymmetry between them and to the question of the methodological weight, which concerns to accommodation and prediction. This discussion is followed by the characterization of scientific prediction: the concept of prediction and its two main uses regarding science. Thereafter, there is an analysis of the distinction between qualitative and quantitative predictions, which is considered in three steps: (i) the features of the qualitative prediction and the role of generic predictions; (ii) the traits of quantitative prediction and the existence of differences between sciences; and (iii) types of information used for prediction. Finally, there is a special emphasis on diversity of economic predictions, because there are types of economic predictions; but distinctions can be made also between “foresight,” “prediction,” “forecasting,” and “planning.”