Dose-response algorithms for water-borne Pseudomonas aeruginosa folliculitis

Abstract

We developed two dose-response algorithms for P. aeruginosa pool folliculitis using bacterial and lesion density estimates, associated with undetectable, significant, and almost certain folliculitis. Literature data were fitted to Furumoto &Mickey's equations, developed for plant epidermisinvading pathogens: Nl = A ln(1 + BC) (log-linear model); Pinf = 1?e(?rcC) (exponential model), where A and B are 2.51644 × 107 lesions/m2 and 2.28011 × 10-11 c.f.u./ml P. aeruginosa, respectively; C = pathogen density (c.f.u./ml), Nl = folliculitis lesions/m2, Pinf = probability of infection, and rC = 43 × 10?7 c.f.u./ml P. aeruginosa. Outbreak data indicates these algorithms apply to exposure durations of 41 25 min. Typical water quality benchmarks (?10?2 c.f.u./ml) appear conservative but still useful as the literature indicated repeated detection likely implies unstable control barriers and bacterial bloom potential. In future, culture-based outbreak testing should be supplemented with quantitative polymerase chain reaction and organic carbon assays, and quantification of folliculitis aetiology to better understand P. aeruginosa risks.