Anthropogenic Climate Change in the Mangrove-Dominated Indian Sundarbans: Spatio-temporal Analyses, Future Trends, and Recommendations for Mitigation and Adaptation

Abstract

Anthropogenic climate change is among the most defining challenges confronting the current era, with impacts already affecting both the health of the environment and the functioning of virtually every sector of society. In the present study, four environmental indicators were used as proxies to analyse the footprints of climate change in the mangrove-dominated deltaic region of the Indian Sundarbans, namely surface air temperature, near-surface atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), surface water salinity, and surface water pH. The study grouped the mangrove ecosystem into three distinct zones (western, central, and eastern sectors) and analysed 37 years of data (1984–2020). The results indicate that although both air temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentrations have risen uniformly in all three sectors of the study area, increases in aquatic salinity have not been uniform. While the western and eastern parts of the Indian Sundarbans exhibited a lowering of salinity, the central region displayed a gradual increase in aquatic salinity. These differences may be explained by divergent dilution factors and siltation-linked freshwater obstructions. Aquatic pH has decreased uniformly in all three sectors of the present study area. Two-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) reflects a distinctive climate change signal influencing all four primary environmental parameters. Additionally, artificial intelligence (AI) technology was employed to evaluate future aspects of these environmental variables using nonlinear autoregressive (NAR) networks. In synthesis, the climate change signal in the Indian Sundarbans region is mixed with “noise” that can be linked to other human inputs, including urbanisation, industrialisation, and changes in land-use patterns (shrimp culture, tourism), among others. Notably, an alarming situation is predicted to occur around the middle of the century. The study recommends the implementation of both mitigative and adaptive measures to counteract the adverse impacts of anthropogenic climate change. Recommendations encompass low-carbon alternative livelihoods, mangrove plantations, and rainwater harvesting, among others.