Efficient probabilistic assessment of intact stability

Abstract

Near regularity of excitation is conducive to large amplitude responses. Moreover, higher waves tend to appear in groups (Draper 1971). These observations are the drivers of a new approach for the probabilistic assessment of intact stability. The intention is to maintain the rigour and breadth of the deterministic approach while taking fully into account the probabilistic character of the seaway. Critical wave groups are specified on the basis of deterministic analysis. A procedure is put forward for calculating the probability of encountering these wave groups. A containership's tendency for instability in a specific North-Atlantic route is used as the showcase for demonstrating the feasibility of the approach. © Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011.