The urbanising force of global warming: The role of climate change in the spatial distribution of population

Abstract

We study the relationship between changes in weather patterns and the spatial distribution of population and economic activity within countries. Our unique global dataset combines climatic and census data for the period 1950-2015 with satellite data on built-up areas, and light intensity at night for the 1990-2015 periods. We establish a global non-linear effect of climate on urbanisation. In particular, we find that deteriorating climatic conditions are associated with more urbanisation. This happens across the whole urban structure, with urbanisation increasing in both smaller and larger cities. But, we also find that weather variation can alter the national urban structure, including the pattern of urban concentration, as well as the size, density and spatial structure of large cities.