Prediction of Changes in Land Use/Land Cover and Hydrological Response in the Upper Ciliwung Watershed

Abstract

As a result of rapid urbanization, in 2021, it was recorded that the forest area in the Upper Ciliwung Watershed was only a quarter of the total area. Therefore, the Upper Ciliwung Watershed cannot optimally perform its hydrological functions. One of the reasons for conducting this research is to provide consideration in calculating the adequacy of the forest area in the Upper Ciliwung watershed. In addition, this research was also conducted to estimate the discharge and volume of water, the trend of land use change in the Upper Ciliwung watershed in the last few decades, what might happen in the future if land use change continues, and how much influence it will have in maintaining forest areas that exist in minimizing the risk of future disasters occurring due to the high rate of development. This study combines remote sensing technology and hydrological modelling to understand changes in hydrological characteristics when LULC transformed from 2001 to 2051. The spatial-temporal dynamics of LULC and its hydrological response were estimated using an integrated approach that combines remote sensing, Cellular Automata-Markov Chain based on Multi-Layer Perceptron with an HEC-HMS modelling system. Multitemporal satellite imagery is used to understand LULC changes and projections for 2031 and 2051 in the Upper Ciliwung watershed. The analysis shows that there has been a very significant increase in the developed area over the years. In contrast, other types of LULC have decreased. In 2001-2051, the forest area experienced the worst decline, 22,423,493 m2. Meanwhile, the developed area experienced a significant increase of 49,771,952 m2. This changing pattern has a negative impact on hydrological characteristics. Hydrological modelling shows that the volume and discharge are projected to increase drastically to reach 258.61 x 106 m3 and 26.3 m3/s, respectively, in 2051.