Evaluating the predicted extinction risk of living amphibian species with the fossil record

Abstract

Bridging the gap between the fossil record and conservation biology has recently become of great interest. The enormous number of documented extinctions across different taxa can provide insights into the extinction risk of living species. However, few studies have explored this connection. We used generalised boosted modelling to analyse the impact of several traits that are assumed to influence extinction risk on the stratigraphic duration of amphibian species in the fossil record. We used this fossil-calibrated model to predict the extinction risk for living species. We observed a high consensus between our predicted species durations and the current IUCN Red List status of living amphibian species. We also found that today's Data Deficient species are mainly predicted to experience short durations, hinting at their likely high threat status. Our study suggests that the fossil record can be a suitable tool for the evaluation of current taxa-specific Red Listing status.