Dynamical systems approach in automobiles technological transition from environmental drivers

Abstract

The effects of climate change have led us to identify the need to minimize emissions, particularly in the transport sector. However, the demand for cars has increased and, the only alternative is the technological transition towards zero-emission technologies such as electric cars. This document proposes a mathematical model based on system dynamics to evaluate with dynamical systems the technological transition of automobiles from environmental drives. The results show bifurcations of codimension 2 between 4 different types of phase portraits, each of which allowed to identify a different type of transition. It is concluded that the demand for each technology and its useful life will determine its permanence in the market, but that each of these gives rise to environmental impacts that will guide the preferences of consumers, with the possibility that there is a loss in the motivation of consumers generated by the emergence of some other type of alternative, perhaps such as active mobility.