The elasticity of marital fertility in three sub-Saharan African countries: a decomposition analysis

Abstract

Many studies of fertility have reported a wide range of factors to be important determinants. These determinants include proximate factors and male and female background variables. However, most of the research has been based on an analysis of cross-sectional fertility elasticities. Therefore, there are limited attempts to examine the temporal behaviour of especially marital fertility in association to the proximate and background determinants. To fill this gap, this study analysed Demographic and Health Survey data for Kenya, Rwanda and Zimbabwe using the Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition technique to determine the magnitude of marital fertility changes in association with selected socioeconomic factors. The results showed evidence of significant marital fertility transitions characterised by stalling for all three countries. Marital fertility rates were more responsive changes in reproductive behaviours than compositional characteristics. Male variables like community level of education were positively associated with stalling especially in Kenya and Zimbabwe. Despite the small contributions overall, analysing male and female variables improves the understanding of the sources of marital fertility changes in patriarchal societies.