Use of nuclear emergency response system for assessment of transboundary transfer and radiological risks of the potential accidental releases at khmelnitsky NPP

Abstract

The JRODOS nuclear emergency response system was applied for estimation of risks caused by transboundary transport of possible accidental release from the newly designed units 3&4 of Khmelnitsky NPP. The total effective potential dose for 1-year children, received during 1 year after release from all pathways was calculated and used as measure of impact. About 4000 calculations of the dispersion scenarios were conducted using JRODOS atmospheric dispersion model and food dose model, with the start times of the releases falling within the time period of June-November, 2018. The numerical weather prediction data of WRF-Ukraine forecasting system operating in the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center were used to drive the JRODOS simulations. For each dispersion scenario maximum dose reached at the territory of every considered neighbor country (Belarus, Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Moldova) was calculated. The simulated series of effective doses were fitted with GEV distribution. Taking into account probability of the accident the total probability of effective dose exceeding 1 mSv in at least one of neighboring countries is 9.74E − 07 yr-1, which corresponds to the frequency of occurrence of such event 1 time in 1 million years.