FORECASTING OF THE TOURISM INDUSTRY DEVELOPMENT AND THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC CONSEQUENCES: GEOGRAPHICAL AND INTERNATIONAL ORIENTATION

Abstract

Restrictions on transportation between countries because of lockdown caused by the prevalence of morbidity COVID-19 have slowed down economic activity worldwide. Therefore, in this paper, we examine and estimate the short-term economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global market situation in terms of the international tourism industry. The purpose of the study is to analyze the current economic situation of the world tourism sector, which suffered the most because of the COVID-19 pandemic, determine the main tourist flows (inbound and outbound tourism), and identify main tourism trends that characterize travel and tourism in 2020, to form practical directions for improving the tourism industry, domestic tourism in particular. This article analyzes the dynamics of international touristic destinations for the period 2019-2020, with regard to the pre-pandemic period and during the COVID-19 lockdown. Also, the dynamics of destinations of international tourists by different regions and the world in general for different types of travel limitations in 2020 are analyzed. It is detected an enhancement in percentage change of tourism destinations from July 2020 because the world began to open up to international tourism, mainly in the European Union. In this article, it is considered that the implementation of travel restrictions is clearly affected international travel. The dynamic of the international tourists’ destinations with a complete/partial closure of borders and other restrictions by region in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic are analyzed. The major trends in the tourism sector during the coronavirus crisis are highlighted. The main practical directions for the resuscitation of the tourism industry have been formed, which will have to reduce the negative consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic and created a basis for increasing the competitiveness of domestic tourism. It is determined that support for the development of the tourism industry at the central and local levels should be based on the expected preferences of tourists and the risk of using illegal resorts with the possibility of infection. The article examines the main problems of the tourism sphere of Ukraine, which arise as a result of the introduction of measures to overcome the coronavirus pandemic in the world and in Ukraine in particular. Using the experience of other countries and international recommendations, measures for intersectoral cooperation in the context of increased epidemic risks are proposed. The article reveals the peculiarities of the development of the tourist sphere of Ukraine in the conditions of increased epidemic risks. Modern tendencies of functioning of the tourist sphere of the country are investigated. The tourism sector is suffering on a global scale due to the implementation of measures to overcome the coronavirus pandemic and the uncertainty of further development of the situation. According to various scenarios, in 2020 the volume of international tourist arrivals is expected to fall by 58-78% compared to last year. According to experts, the recovery of demand to the level of 2019 will take at least two years. According to experts, the sphere of tourist services of the coronavirus crisis period will be characterized by giving consumers priority in terms of choice of shorter rest periods, a predominance of individual movement and individual accommodation, choice of health, sea, and rural tourism.