Seismic hazard analysis based on fuzzy-probabilistic approach

Abstract

China is a country prone to frequent earthquakes due to geography and climate complexity. The task of seismic hazard analysis is to estimate the potential level of ground motion parameters that would be produced by future earthquakes. In this paper, a novel method for seismic hazard analysis is proposed based on the fuzzy probabilistic approach. The earthquake magnitude and source-to-site distance are defined as fuzzy-random variables. Further, Cornell model is applied to evaluate the ground motion and the fuzzy-probability of exceedance of the peak ground acceleration level. The advantage of the fuzzy probabilistic seismic hazard analysis model over the traditional deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard models is that it considers two types of uncertainties, aleatory and epistemic. The proposed model investigates the seismic hazard of Kunming, the capital of Yunnan province in China.