War, Sanctions, Deglobalization: Which Comes First?

Abstract

We argue that the war in Ukraine and the instrument of sanctions should be framed into a long trend – from globalization and the international imbalances it generates, to the subsequent “de-globalizing” movement –, which had a paramount role in the preparation for the war. The protagonists of the conflict are more properly identified with the two blocs of states whose economies are anchored either to the United States or China, respectively the major debtor and the major creditor of the world. In this context, the distinction between sanctions and protectionist policies is increasingly blurred, while both are growingly intertwined with defence policy.