Linkage analysis of factors influencing the sustainability of Lake Singkarak in West Sumatra Province, Indonesia

Abstract

Lake Singkarak, located in the West Sumatra Province, resulted from a tectonic process affected by the Great Sumatran Fault. The lake has a total area of 107 km2 and is used for fisheries, tourism, hydroelectric power plant, etc. However, this lake is facing an array of issues and is even considered in a critical condition. Population growth, land use changes, agriculture development, and climate change are suspected to be the causes. It was also aggravated by the COVID-19 pandemic, wherein lake maintenance was neglected. The lake is a system, therefore maintenance of the lake cannot be performed partially and sporadically but must be integrated and comprehensive. This research analyses factors affecting the lake's sustainability and the linkage between those factors. This research employed a system thinking approach. There are direct and indirect links between social, economic, and environmental factors, as illustrated in a Causal Loop Diagram. This diagram depicts how economic activities are constrained by available potential, which, at certain thresholds, may result in a drop in lake quality if managed in an unsustainable manner. Additionally, lake management appears to be an important factor in overcoming existing issues and establishing a sustainable lake.