Impacts of real estate securitization on land price changes in the inner city of Tokyo since 2001: A geographically weighted regression analysis

Abstract

This study examined the relationship between land price changes and the Japanese Real Estate Investment Trust (J-REIT) in the inner city of Tokyo by using global and local regression techniques. In the beginning of the 21st century, as a reaction to economic depression, the Japanese Government implemented policies that encouraged structural reforms. These policies included real estate securitization that primarily intended to solve the issue of massive bad loans held by financial institutions. With the support of the Bank of Japan in terms of the easing of money supply, affluent liquidities flew into the real estate market through real estate securitization. The J-REIT is the only scheme of real estate securitization that offers shares to the public. A total of 64% of all the properties invested by the J-REIT are located in the inner city of Tokyo. Conventional multivariate regression analysis revealed that the J-REIT had a significant influence on land price changes every year. Affluent liquidities invested through the J-REIT have made positive impacts on the deflation of land prices. Geographically weighted regression (GWR) analysis was applied to clarify whether or not the relationship between land price changes and the J-REIT varied in the study area. The results of the GWR analysis indicated that the relationship between land price changes and the J-REIT showed a significant, spatial non-stationarity. Areas that benefited from the positive impacts of the J-REIT were limited to business districts such as Hibiya, Shinjuku, and Shibuya.