On Predictability of Homicide Surges in Megacities

Abstract

In this paper we analyse statistics of several types of crimes in Los Angeles over the period 1975-2002. Our analysis focuses on how these statistics change before a sharp and lasting rise ("a surge") of the homicide rate. Episodes of a rise of burglaries and assaults simultaneously occur 4 to 11 months before a homicide surge, while robberies decline. Later on, closer to the rise in homicides, robberies start to rise.