Validación de la PSU: Comentarios al ""Estudio acerca de la validez predictiva de los factores de selección a las universidades del Consejo de Rectores""

Abstract

coalition's leaders have issued premature announcements of its death (Latin America Adviser 2002; El Mercurio 2003a). Some observers of Chilean politics, therefore, might regard the dissolution of the Concertación as both a foregone conclusion and an overdetermined event –that is, as the product of so many factors, all working toward the same end, that it is impossible to assign responsibility among them. We share the opinion that the Concertación may well dissolve before Chile's next election, but not for the reasons commonly cited. Our argument is based, instead, on the structure of Chilean political careers, which in turn is connected inextricably with Chile's unusual electoral rules. Harbingers of the Concertación's demise point out that the Chilean economy has slowed somewhat since the coalition's early years in government during the 1990s. Moreover, the coalition itself was initially galvanized around opposition to the Pinochet regime of the 1970s and 1980s, so as time passes, the compelling force of that initial motivation might naturally weaken. In addition, the Concertación, and even its component parties —most notably the Christian Democrats— are internally divided over social issues, such as the legal status of divorce and access to birth control. Finally, by the 2005 elections, the Concertación will have held the presidency and a majority in the Chamber of Deputies (the legislative house elected by popular vote) for 16 years. By the standards of multiparty coalitions anywhere, much less among Latin America's presidential systems, the Concertación is geriatric, bearing the scars of miscellaneous corruption charges against members, including the stripping of parliamentary rights from five of the coalition's deputies in 2002, and the general disillusionment that goes with holding the reins of power for so long. One might conclude, then, that the coalition is simply ready to expire. Any of these forces, or some combination of them, could indeed undermine the Concertación, but we do not regard these factors as necessarily devastating to the coalition's survival for a number of reasons. In the first place, the Chilean economy has come through the last five years in far better shape than that of any of its Southern Cone neighbors, and employment and growth figures rebounded in first months of 2003. The Concertación may well be in a position in 2005 to claim credit for good economic stewardship. Next, many of the issues surrounding the non-democratic legacy of the Pinochet era —including the renowned Estudios Públicos, 104 (primavera 2006). El presente trabajo evalúa las conclusiones extraídas del " Estudio Acerca de la Validez Predictiva de los Factores de Selección a las Universidades del Consejo de Rectores " (Comité Técnico Asesor, 2006). Se concluye que, contrariamente a lo señalado en órganos de prensa, dicho estudio en modo alguno puede calificarse de " contun-dente " en lo que atañe a refutar los cuestionamientos de que ha sido objeto la PSU. Más bien, a la luz de sus limitaciones, no puede concluirse que el cambio haya incrementado la capacidad predictiva de las pruebas de admisión ni que éstas hayan cumplido con las expectativas de favorecer el acceso de postulantes provenientes de sectores de menores recursos a la universidad. El artículo presenta algunos de los problemas y limitaciones del estudio.