The “Seili-index” for the Prediction of Chlorophyll-α Levels in the Archipelago Sea of the northern Baltic Sea, southwest Finland

2Citations
Citations of this article
9Readers
Mendeley users who have this article in their library.

This article is free to access.

Abstract

To build a forecasting tool for the state of eutrophication in the Archipelago Sea, we fitted a Generalized Additive Mixed Model (GAMM) to marine environmental monitoring data, which were collected over the years 2011–2019 by an automated profiling buoy at the Seili ODAS-station. The resulting “Seili-index” can be used to predict the chlorophyll-α (chl-a) concentration in the seawater a number of days ahead by using the temperature forecast as a covariate. An array of test predictions with two separate models on the 2019 data set showed that the index is adept at predicting the amount of chl-a especially in the upper water layer. The visualization with 10 days of chl-a level predictions is presented online at https://saaristomeri.utu.fi/seili-index/. We also applied GAMMs to predict abrupt blooms of cyanobacteria on the basis of temperature and wind conditions and found the model to be feasible for short-term predictions. The use of automated monitoring data and the presented GAMM model in assessing the effects of natural resource management and pollution risks is discussed.

References Powered by Scopus

Generalized additive models: An introduction with R, second edition

5872Citations
N/AReaders
Get full text

Our evolving conceptual model of the coastal eutrophication problem

2285Citations
N/AReaders
Get full text

Coastal marine eutrophication: A definition, social causes, and future concerns

2070Citations
N/AReaders
Get full text

Cited by Powered by Scopus

River nutrient inflows and coastal ecosystem health in Northeast Tunisia's Kelibia Mediterranean Region

3Citations
N/AReaders
Get full text

Assessing Chlorophyll-a Variations in Caspian Sea during the COVID-19 Pandemic

0Citations
N/AReaders
Get full text

Register to see more suggestions

Mendeley helps you to discover research relevant for your work.

Already have an account?

Cite

CITATION STYLE

APA

Hänninen, J., Mäkinen, K., Nordhausen, K., Laaksonlaita, J., Loisa, O., & Virta, J. (2022). The “Seili-index” for the Prediction of Chlorophyll-α Levels in the Archipelago Sea of the northern Baltic Sea, southwest Finland. Environmental Modeling and Assessment, 27(4), 571–584. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10666-022-09822-9

Readers' Seniority

Tooltip

Professor / Associate Prof. 2

50%

PhD / Post grad / Masters / Doc 2

50%

Readers' Discipline

Tooltip

Environmental Science 2

50%

Social Sciences 1

25%

Engineering 1

25%

Save time finding and organizing research with Mendeley

Sign up for free