Past and future changes in biogenic volatile organic compound emissions simulated with a global dynamic vegetation model

Abstract

Based on an interactive global biogenic emission and dynamic vegetation model, we investigate the evolution of volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions by the terrestrial biosphere in four scenarios: the Last Glacial Maximum (21,000 years BP), the preindustrial (1850s), present-day (1990s) and the future (2100). The combined effects of foliar expansion, climate change and ecosystems redistribution impact strongly on biogenic emissions. Total biogenic VOC emissions increase from 331 TgC/yr at the LGM to 702 TgC/yr at the preindustrial, 725 TgC/ yr at present-day and to 1251 TgC/yr under future conditions. If the tropics remain a major source region, a substantial decrease in VOC emissions is calculated over Amazonia for 2100 due to the recession of tropical forests in response to climate change. The Northern Hemisphere becomes a significant source of VOC in the future and globally, emissions increase by 27% for isoprene and 51% for monoterpenes compared to the present. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.