Urn Models for Markov Exchangeability

Abstract

Markov exchangeability, a generalization of exchangeability that was proposed by de Finetti, requires that a probability on a string of letters be constant on all strings which have the same initial letter and the same transition counts. The set of Markov exchangeable measures forms a convex set. A graph theoretic and an urn interpretation of the extreme points of this convex set is given.