Mathematical Model and Data Analysis to Determine the Number of Confirmed Infections Due to Covid-19 in Spain

Abstract

Covid-19 initially started in China, although cases of infection by this virus are currently being identified in Europe since January and February of this year camouflaged within a strong outbreak of influenza that had not been identified before. What is certain is that in about a hundred days it has spread around the world threatening humanity. There seems to be a great need to find a rapid response to the speed at which the virus is spreading. In this work, different mathematical models are studied to accurately determine the speed of propagation or infection of people infected by Covid-19 based on data collected from the evolution of the pandemic in Spain. Several mathematical models are proposed and analyzed, but the model proposed as the most suitable is a fourth degree polynomial regression adjustment that presents an R-square statistic of 99.72% which gives a great adjustment of the model for the calculation of the number of infected confirmed by this virus in Spain.  Knowing these data is of vital importance to be able to take and undertake the most urgent health and social measures in an effective and orderly manner. This will have a great repercussion in being able to avoid a high number of possible infections.