Auswirkungen möglicher Klimaänderungen auf Hochwasser und Wasserhaushaltskomponenten ausgewählter Einzugsgebiete in Österreich

Abstract

Summary: The effects of climate change on the runoff situation have been investigated at four Austrian catchments, Bregenzer Ache (gauge Mellau), Lavant (gauge Fischering), Traisen (gauge Lilienfeld) and Salzach (gauge Mittersill). For this analysis the climate change scenarios A1B and B1 of the regional climate model (RCM) REMO of Max-Planck-Institute-for-Meteorology-Hamburg have been used for creating daily time series of air temperature and precipitation by means of a stochastic weather generator. The reference status of the period of 1961 to 1990 was compared with the period of 2070 to 2100 and the changes were interpreted as climate change impact. The results showed strong regional differences. The magnitude of the annual floods will be reduced in the alpine basins and significantly increased in the Traisen basin. An overall trend to a seasonal change in flood could be shown. The tendency of the decrease of snow accumulation and earlier snow smelt caused by higher air temperature and a higher rate in liquid precipitation with more runoff in winter time and less in summer time could be demonstrated. © 2010 Springer-Verlag.