From research on the decision-making in ill-structured situation control and the problem of risks

Abstract

In this paper basic directions of cognitive approach evolution in the field of formal methods of searching and making decisions in the control of complex and ill-structured situations are briefly reviewed. The problem of risks for the results validity that arise due to the human factor in the cognitive approach is considered and the conception of cognitive risks is proposed with two kinds of risks exposed. On the example of a real-life cognitive map, modeling a complex and illstructured situation, practically significant risks of invalid formalization related to causal influence transitivity are demonstrated. Some explanatory mechanisms and criteria for the early detection of such risks are proposed. The issues important for further evolution of the cognitive approach to decision-making in the ill-structured situation control and especially of causal mapping techniques are lighted.