Analysis of the characteristics and number of bicycle-passenger conflicts at bus stops for improving safety

Abstract

This study aimed to analyze the characteristics of bicycle-passenger conflicts at bus stops and develop a model to predict the number of conflicts accurately. This paper investigated the traffic flow operation at bus stops by video recording. Duration and distribution characteristics of bicycle-passenger conflicts were statistically analyzed. Then four types of conflicts defined based on evasive behavior (cyclist yielding as Type 1, cyclist bypassing as Type 2, passenger yielding as Type 3, and passenger bypassing as Type 4) were compared. A generalized event count (GEC) model was established for bicycle-passenger conflict estimation and analysis. The main results indicated that: (1) The average conflict duration was 1.716 s, whilst 60.9% of conflicts existed near the accesses of bus stops in longitudinal direction; (2) Type 1 conflict was significantly different from Type 2, 3, and 4 conflicts in duration, whilst the three had no significant difference; (3) the proposed GEC model showed good performance in predicting bicycle-passenger conflicts, with 15.71% of mean-absolute-percentage-error and 0.8772 of R2; and (4) bicycle volume, bus passenger volume, and passenger crossing time were critical factors impacting the number of bicycle-passenger conflicts. Finally, transport agencies may consider installing separations and crosswalks to improve the safety of the stop area.