Simulation hydrologique des derniers jours de la crue de printemps: Le problème de la neige manquante

Abstract

Operational hydrology has to provide a reliable forecast of the spring flood events over the territory of Quebec. Hydrological models using ground observed snow water equivalent (SWE) as an initial condition are applied for this purpose. However, these models face major difficulties when trying to simulate the final part of the spring flood. This paper presents an original approach for calibrating and feeding the hydrological models with vertical inflows from snowmelt and rain, corrected continuously using bi-monthly observed SWE. This method, tested on the River du Nord catchment, helps to improve the quality of the spring flood simulation. Significant errors remain, leading to the conclusion that, at least in part, the snow observation methods commonly used in Quebec may be the source of the problem. This paper also considers the idea that another part of the explanation might be in the - as yet difficult to prove - presence of a new snow monster. © 2010 Centre d'expertise hydrique du Québec.