Quantitative Risk Analysis for International Project Management and Programs in an Emerging Economy

Abstract

Historically, international projects are prone to both endogenous and exogenous risks. And the World Bank international projects and programs are not immune to similar risks. What is important though is the ability of project managers to identify the sources of endogenous and exogenous risks and how to leverage proactive or predictive project risk management strategies. Arguably, predictive project risk management is the lifeline for successful projects and programs. Managing portfolio of risks in international projects is imperative for the World Bank’s mission of economic development and poverty eradication in developing countries. Inability to identify sources of risks attached to projects and programs can contribute to missed opportunities. It can also discourage the World Bank and other international agencies from approving or awarding future development projects and programs. Although in spite of the growing menace of risks in development projects and programs, project managers have little or no knowledge of project risk management. This chapter proposes a multi-attribute decision support approach to model and analyze the risk for the World Bank projects and programs in Nigeria.