Risk Analysis and Emergency Forecast of Toxic Substances Local Scale Transport Over Bulgaria

Abstract

The present paper describes the some results of the modelling system for operational response to accidental releases of harmful gases in the atmosphere (as a result of terrorist attack or industrial accident). The system is based on the following models: WRF, used as meteorological pre-processor; SMOKE - the emission pre-processor; CMAQ - the Chemical Transport Model (CTM) of the system. For the needs of the emergency response preparedness mode the risk is defined as probability the national regulatory threshold values for toxic gases to be exceeded. Maps of the risk around potential sources of emergency toxic gas releases are constructed and demonstrated in the present paper. Some examples of the system "operational mode" results are demonstrated as well. © Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014.