Predicting the evolution of narratives in social media

Abstract

The emergence of global networking capabilities (e.g. social media) has provided newfound mechanisms and avenues for information to be generated, disseminated, shaped, and consumed. The spread and evolution of online information represents a unique narrative ecosystem that is facilitated by cyberspace but operates at the nexus of three dimensions: the social network, the contextual, and the spatial. Current approaches to predict patterns of information spread across social media primarily focus on the social network dimension of the problem. The novel challenge formulated in this work is to blend the social, spatial, and contextual dimensions of online narratives in order to support high fidelity simulations that are contextually informed by past events, and support the multi-granular, reconfigural and dynamic prediction of the dissemination of a new narrative.