Stress Relationship between Ecological Security and Urban Expansion Suitability

Abstract

Systems integration assessment can provide the comprehensive information for practice and policy, reducing conflict in decision-making. Using Beijing city as a case study, this paper proposed a systematic stress assessment method to describe the stress relationship between urban expansion suitability and ecological security. Firstly, Minimum Cumulative Resistance Model (MCR) was adopted to depict the ecological security pattern from 2000 to 2018, and the pattern of high, moderate and low ecological security was protracted. Secondly, the index weights of urban expansion suitability were calculated by Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to eliminate subjectivity, and 5 levels of urban expansion suitability were established by weighted overlay. Finally, this study evaluated the stress effect. Results showed that the overall regional ecological security of Beijing decreased first (2000-2010) and then increased (2010-2018). The suitable area for urban expansion was getting larger, but the expansion rate dropped. Stress effect on urban expansion from ecological security pattern raised from 2000 to 2010 and then dropped. However, the stress effect on ecological security from urban expansion was continuously increasing, stimulating potential risks to the natural ecosystem. The changes of stress effect were stimulated by the policy and planning, driving urban expansion in early period and ecological conservation latterly. Comprehensively, the integrated stress effect assessment improved the recognition of the spatiotemporal variation of ecological security patterns and urban expansion in Beijing.