Impact of climate change on wheat production: A case study of Pakistan

Abstract

Climate change, due to greenhouse gases increasing the earth's overall temperature, is an emerging issue of agricultural production. The higher temperatures may negatively affect the growth process of wheat and decrease the production of wheat. The objective of this study is to look at the impact of climate change on wheat production which is the main food crop of Pakistan. The study uses the Vector Auto Regression (VAR) model to evaluate the impact of global climate change on the production of wheat in Pakistan. The study considers annual data from 1960 to 2009. On the basis of this historical data, the study captures trends for the impact of climate change on wheat production for the period 2010-2060. The results of the historical data estimation reveal that up until now, there is no significant negative impact of climate change on wheat production in Pakistan. However, future wheat production will significantly depend on the climate change variables. Therefore, appropriate adaptative and mitigative techniques are recommended to cope with or at least to reduce this newly emerging hazard. © The Pakistan Development Review.