Evaluating the number of sickbeds during ebola epidemics using optimal control theory

Abstract

Optimal control (OC) theory is a powerful tool to guide the design and implementation of control intervention strategies against epidemics. This technique defined controlmeasures under a predetermined objectivewhile minimizing the costs associated with the implementation of the control strategy. Here we use optimal control and epidemic modeling to explore the uncertainty in hospital bed capacity that would be needed to control an Ebola epidemic under different initial conditions, variation in the basic reproduction number, and associated costs to implement control measures. In particular, we focus on assessing the impact of effective isolation of infectious individuals in the health care setting because one key factor that facilitated the development of the Ebola epidemic in West Africa was the lack of public health surveillance systems to detect new outbreaks and the healthcare capacity that is needed to enforce infection control practices.