Fuzzy system dynamics: A framework for modeling renewable energy policies

Abstract

Renewable energy policy formulation and evaluation is an important subject matter at island, country, regional, and global levels. The general objective is to achieve a sustainable low-carbon energy economy. However, developing robust long-term renewable energy policies is nontrivial due to complex dynamics prevalent in energy systems. To meet future energy demand while keeping CO 2 emission at a sustainable level, effective renewable energy policies have to be put into place. This chapter presents a framework for evaluating renewable energy policies based on a fuzzy system dynamics (FSD) paradigm. First, we describe the renewable energy policy problem, with a case study example. Second, we present a framework for FSD modeling. Third, we propose a high-level causal loop analysis to capture the complex dynamic interactions among various energy demand and supply factors, from an FSD perspective. Fourth, and finally, we propose an FSD model for renewable energy policy modeling and evaluation. © Springer Science+Business Media New York 2013.