The lightning jump algorithm for nowcasting convective rainfall in Catalonia

Abstract

Previous studies in Catalonia (NE Iberian Peninsula) showed a direct relationship between the Lightning Jump (LJ) and severe weather, from the study of different events, occurring in the last few years in this region. This research goes a step beyond by studying the relationship between LJ and heavy rainfall, considering different criteria. It selects those episodes exceeding the 40 mm/h threshold, dividing them between those with or without LJ occurrence (3760 and 14,238 cases, respectively). The time and distance criteria (<150 km and <50 min, respectively) allow the detection of rainfall episodes with LJ, to establish an accurate relationship between the jump and the heavy rain occurrence. Then, lightning and radar data are analyzed, considering monthly and hourly distributions. Skill scores for the period 2013-2018 showed good results, especially in summer, with values of POD ≃ 90% and FAR ≃ 10%.