The Export-Led Growth Hypothesis: Some Evidence from the 8-ASEAN

Abstract

Abstract This paper examines the validity of the growth hypothesis underlying exports within the context of the developing country sector, given the life of a general marketplace among countries. It used annual data from developing countries in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) from 2009 to 2018 and analyzed the impact of capital, employment, land and exports on the import sector on agricultural growth. The method used is Estimated generalized least square (EGLS) panel data analysis. The results of the study show that, in an Export Led Growth (ELG) scenario, data exists for analysis in eight ASEAN countries, specifically Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines and Vietnam. Production input factors (capital, labor and land) have a significant and positive impact on agricultural economic growth, while trade factors (exports and imports) have a negative impact on economic growth. In order to expand the contribution of the agricultural sector, capital, labor and agricultural land must be large enough to have a positive impact on agricultural growth. JEL classification numbers: J43. Keywords: Agricultural export, Agricultural growth, Free trade, Developing countries.