The Impact of the United States Energy Revolution and Decarbonisation on Energy Markets in Africa

Abstract

Two recent developments are influencing energy markets and related value chains in Africa to a dramatic extent: the exploitation of unconventional hydrocarbon resources—the so-called shale revolution—in the United States and the striving for global decarbonisation. Together with the 2014 oil price crash, the shale revolution resulted initially in a precipitous drop in export revenues across Africa’s producer countries—and constitutes a key exogenous effect on the continent’s energy markets. The global transition away from fossil fuels, while ultimately necessary for mitigating climate change, threatens to leave Africa with stranded—meaning worthless—assets. After providing overviews of the shale revolution, decarbonisation and their respective impacts on Africa, this chapter compares how an established and an emerging producer, Nigeria and Uganda respectively, are attempting to deal with these new challenges. It suggests that switching to renewable energies may be wiser than trying to increase value capture in hydrocarbon value chains.