The Long and Large Decline in State Employment Growth Volatility

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Abstract

This study documents a general decline in the volatility of employment growth during the period 1956-2002 and examines its possible sources. We use a panel design that exploits the considerable state-level variation in volatility during the period. The roles of monetary policy, oil prices, industrial employment shifts, and a coincident index of business cycle variables are explored. Overall, these four variables taken together explain as much as 31% of the fluctuations in employment growth volatility. Individually, each of the four factors is found to have significantly contributed to fluctuations in employment growth volatility, although to differing degrees. © 2013 The Ohio State University.

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Carlino, G. A., Defina, R., & Sill, K. (2013). The Long and Large Decline in State Employment Growth Volatility. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 45(2–3), 521–534. https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12014

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