Accelerating seismicity and stress accumulation before large earthquakes

Abstract

The stress field that existed before a large earthquake can be calculated based on the known source parameters of the event. This stress field can be used to define a region that shows greater seismic moment rate changes prior to the event than arbitrarily shaped regions, allowing us to link two previously unrelated subjects: Coulomb stress interactions and accelerating seismicity before large earthquakes. As an example, we have examined all M≥6.5 earthquakes in California since 1950. While we illustrate the model using seismicity in California, the technique is general and can be applied to any tectonically active region. We show that where sufficient knowledge of the regional tectonics exists, this method can be used to augment current techniques for seismic hazard estimation.