Feasibility of seasonal forecasts inferred from multiple GCM simulations

Abstract

Assuming that SST provides the major lower boundary forcing for the atmosphere, observed SSTs are prescribed for an ensemble of atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) simulations. The ensemble consists of nine "decadal' runs with different initial conditions chosen beween 1 January 1979 and 1 January 1981 and integrated about 10 yr. The main objective is to explore the feasibility of seasonal forecasts using GCMs. The extent to which the individual members of the ensemble reproduce the solutions of each other (ie reproducibility) may be taken as an indication of potential predictability. In addition, the ability of a particular GCM to produce realistic solutions, when compared with observations, must also be addresed as part of the predictability problem. -from Authors