Area-based and dasymetric point allocation interpolation method for spatial modelling micro-scale voter turnout in Budapest

Abstract

Spatial and temporal distribution of voter turnout can be an appropriate indicator of socio-demographic processes. Since elections are held more frequently than national censuses, their results may refine our picture of the temporal changes of the population. Due to the evolution of statistical applications and queries, gathering data on smaller geographical scales enables researchers to analyze social and political processes on a micro-scale. This kind of research is particularly relevant in the analysis of the transformation of metropolitan areas with significant population concentration are characterized by rapid transformation and high degree of variation. Therefore, the paper aims to develop a method for reaggregating precinct-level electoral results which are spatially inconsistent throughout different elections in the case of Budapest (Hungary). The developed area-based and dasymetric point allocation interpolation can transform the territorially aggregated but inconsistent electoral results into one target subdivision. The changes of voter turnout in different urban areas are related to socio-demographic processes, such as inner suburbanization, gentrification, studentification, or the transformation of former industrial (transitional) areas within the city.