Bayesian updating for one-dimensional consolidation measurements

Abstract

After a geotechnical design has been developed, it is common to monitor performance during construction using the observational method by Peck (published in 1969). The observational method is a process where data are collected and geotechnical models updated, allowing timely decisions to be made with respect to risk and opportunity by asset owners or contractors. The observational method is similar to the mathematical formulation for Bayesian updating of material parameters based on measurements. A proof of concept study has been performed to assess the potential for Bayesian updating to be combined with the observational method to allow timely and accurate decision-making during construction of embankments on soft soils. The method was able to converge to an accurate solution prior to 50% consolidation assuming small measurement errors. It is also demonstrated that confidence in the predicted settlement is relatively low at the prior “design” stage and rapidly increases with three or four measurements spaced over time during the posterior “construction” phase.