Potential global geographical distribution of Lolium temulentum L. under climate change

Abstract

Invasive alien plants posed a significant threat to natural ecosystems, biodiversity, agricultural production, as well as human and livestock health. Lolium temulentum, an annual invasive alien weed with fibrous roots, can reduce wheat production and cause economic losses. Moreover, the consumption of grains or cereal products mixed with darnel can cause dizziness, vomiting, and even death. Therefore, darnel is regarded as one of ″the worst weeds around the world″. In the present study, we predicted the potential global geographical distribution of L. temulentum using an optimal MaxEnt model, based on occurrence records and related environmental variables. The mean AUC, TSS, and KAPPA were 0.95, 0.778, and 0.75, indicating the MaxEnt model accuracy was excellent. The significant environmental variables, including the mean temperature of coldest quarter (bio 11), precipitation of coldest quarter (bio 19), temperature annual range (bio 7), and annual precipitation (bio 12), produced a great impact on the potential global geographical distribution of L. temulentum. Under the current climate, L. temulentum was primarily distributed in south-eastern Asia, Europe, and south-eastern North America. The widest total suitable habitat was distributed in Asia, covering nearly 796 × 104 km2. By the 2050s, the potential geographical distribution of L. temulentum was expected to decrease in the Northern Hemisphere, and shrink gradually in southern America, Africa, and Oceania. Moreover, the distribution center of L. temulentum was expected to shift from Asia to Europe. Based on these predictions, changes in the suitable habitats for L. temulentum between Europe and Asia warrant close attention to prevent further spread.