Deep Learning-Based Approach for Civil Aircraft Hazard Identification and Prediction

Abstract

Safety is an eternal issue in the civil aviation transportation. Once a civil aviation accident occurs, it will cause great casualties and economic losses. In order to ensure the civil aviation safety, the hazard identification and prediction of civil aircraft should be effectively and accurately realized. The civil aircraft uses Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System (ACARS) to interact with the ground during flight. The data generated by ACARS has a simple structure and strong timeliness. In view of the advantages of ACARS data, a hazard identification and prediction method based on support vector machine optimized by particle swarm optimization (PSO-SVM) and long short term memory (LSTM) neural networks which uses ACARS report as analysis data is proposed. First, in order to reduce the identification and prediction time cost, the SVM-based recursive feature elimination method with cross-validation algorithm (SVM-RFECV) is used to select the characteristic parameters. Then, the SVM optimized by PSO is used to identify hazard based on the selected parameters. According to the identification results, the LSTM is used to predict the trend of the selected parameters to realize hazard prediction. An A13 report of APU generated by ACARS is selected as analysis data for hazard identification and predication in this paper. The analysis results show that the proposed identification method based on PSO-SVM and SVM-RFECV has high identification speed and accuracy. The proposed prediction method based on LSTM has the best prediction performance. The proposed method can effectively identify hazards and accurately predict the trend of parameters to improve the safety of aircraft.